The wins category sucks.  You can’t really draft for them.  You can’t count on them.  You just watch as your ace gets no run support or a gem gets wasted as the bullpen spits up the lead.  And the tuna fish to this peanut butter sandwich is watching other pitchers earn wins while being bitch slapped around like…..well….er…..little bitches. 

Exhibit 1 is Dan Haren.  Haren has started three time this year and three time he has delivered a gem.   In 19 IP this season, Haren has put up an ERA of 1.89 with a 0.79 WHIP.  In 19 IP he has struck out 17 while walking only 3.  Dominating, right?  Except for one thing….he’s 0-3.  Arizona’s offense has a serious case of projectile dysfunction and over Haren’s 3 starts, the DBacks have put up ONE…that’s right one lousy run.  Did I mention that I have Haren on both my NL only teams.  Did I mention how this makes me feel?  Betrayed.  Bewildered.  Bebitter.  Be bite me.

Now here’s the thing.  The Orioles have a guy by the name of Koji Uehara.  Uehara has 2 starts under his belt this season.   He has been, oh how should I say this?…..not dominant.  Koji has put up a stellar 7.20 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP.  Koji has mowed down 3 hitters over 10 innings while walking 5.  Koji is 2-0.   What?  Really?  The Orioles outscored their opponents 17-14 in Uehara’s two starts.  Oh.

Exhibit 2 is Kevin Millwood.  Now I’m by no means a Millwood believer, but he has a 14/4  K/BB ration so far with an ERA of 1.17 and a WHIP of 0.78.  Yesterday he pitched a complete game, giving up only 2 runs to the Royals.   He lost.  The outing before yesterday, Millwood pitched 7 shutout innings at Detroit with 6 strikeouts and 0 walks.  He lost.  The wins category sucks.

Next I give you Fausto Carmona, batting practice pitcher extraordinaire.  Yesterday he goes 6 innings and gives up 4 runs while allowing 10 baserunners and striking out 1.  His team scores two touchdowns against the Yankees in one inning on their way to putting up 22 runs.  He wins.  Carmona has an ERA of 7.88 with a WHIP of 1.75 and he’s walked 10 batters in 16 IP while striking out 8.  But he has more wins than Dan Haren.  Go figure.

I could go on and on.  I could cite Johan Santana stiking out 13 over 7 innings while walking just one and giving up just 2 unearned runs.  He gets the loss.  Erik Bedard gives up one earned run in six innings while striking out 8.  In a loss.  But then you witness my favorite incident:  Jensen Lewis pitches 1.2 innings giving up a pair of runs while allowing 4 hits, issuing 3 walks and giving up a homer.  So of course he gets the win.  Go figure.

Maybe it’s just me but if you can figure out this category then drop me a line and tell me how Lost is going to end.

Mopeds and Fat Chicks

These guys have been fun to own this year but I don’t want my friends to know that they’re on my team:

Marco Scutaro:  Scutaro is hitting .306 with 4 HRs and 10 RBIs.  Add 15, yes 15 runs and a 12/7 BB/K ratio and he looks like a certain first baseman playing in St. Louis.  Scutaro is on pace to hit 49 HRs with 186 runs and 124 RBIs.  He’s a career .261 hitter who has a career high of 9 HRs.  It’s been fun but ride him until the morning light turns him back into a girl whose attractiveness is directly proportional to your blood alcohol content. 

Emilio Bonifacio:  Bonifacio was insanely hot coming out of the gates this year and he’s currently hitting .347 with 4 SB and 12 runs scored.  Pretty sweet for a guy that probably went for $1 at the end of the draft and was probably on the waiver wire in mixed leagues.   But wait just a minute here, he has 13 strikeouts while walking just once in 49 ABs.  And he’s currently in a 1 for 16 slide with 9 Ks.  Cinderella your pumpkin awaits.  It is a really fast pumpkin though.

They’re Real and They’re Spectacular

Zack Greinke:  He’s pretty good.  Greinke currently has an ERA of 0.00.  Yep, he’s pitched a shutout for the season so far and he’s currently on a streak of 34 shutout innings going back to the 08 season.  He’s 3-0 this year, (well if you don’t let anybody score you’re bound to get a few wins), with 26 Ks against just 5 BBs in 20 innings with a 1.05 WHIP.   And he’s only 25, so no cankles on the horizon. 

Chad Billingsley:  The Buzzsaw (I download and I listen) is following up a pretty good 08 with an even better 09.  He’s 3-0 (those damn wins again) with a 2.84 ERA and a WHIP of 0.95 with 21 Ks against 7 walks in 19 innings.  Good park to pitch in and a pretty decent lineup behind him.  This guy is a stud.

Raul Ibanez:  Ok, so he’s not an elite talent but you have to love his consistency.  Like tequila, you’ll always have a good time with him in your lineup.  He’s hitting .375 with 4 HRs and 11 runs scored so far this season.  He even managed to steal a base while nobody was paying attention.  The thing is he’s now in a hitter’s ballpark after laboring at SAFECO where in spite of the canyons he still averaged 20+ HRs and 100+ RBIs with a .290ish BA.  More of the same is coming this year with a ballpark fueled uptick in the power numbers. 

Random Musings

Tim Lincecum owner’s are proclaiming “we never had a doubt” but only after an extreme nail makeover.  Lincecum struck out 13 Dbacks while pitching 8 shutout innings (you’d think that Dan Haren was on the mound for Arizona) and walking nary a soul.  Do you think  he got the win?  Nah.  Edwin Jackson has been pretty excellent so far this year.  He has a 2.14 ERA with a WHIP of 0.81 over 21 innings.  What?  Over the last two seasons Jackson has posted WHIPs of 1.76 and 1.51 so is he for real?  I’m not biting yet, but he’s still only 25 years old so I’m watching.  Brett Myers has given up 7 bombs in three starts and the Phillies are going to ask him to chip in some dough for seat repairs in the outfiled bleachers.  The Rangers have called up Derek Holland.  He struck out 167 batters over 150.2 innings while moving through 3 levels in the minors last year.  Oh, and with only 40 BBs.  Not bad for a 22 year old  He’s hit 99mph on the gun and he’s somebody to grab in keeper leagues.  Ian Snell has been seen pitching in Pittsburgh this year and he’s looking like the old Ian Snell.  Other than his first start, where he looked like Mr. Hydesnell and took a beating from the Cards, he’s been back to Dr. Jeckyllsnell.  Over his last two starts Jeckyllsnell has given up only 2 ER in 13 innings with 10Ks.  He’s still giving out free passes like they’re Marlins tickets but keep an eye on him.  Since he pitches for the Pirates I’m guessing nobody is noticing.

OK so the hangover is lifting and it’s time to go eat something that I can keep down.  The missus has put together a veritable cornucopia of cholesterol and polyunsaturated fats so I’m off to grab a balloon catheter and a beer.  Until the next rant……..

So we’re coming up to the end of week 1 and the Sea Monkeys are currently in……..drrrrruuuuummmmm rolllllll…..2nd place!  Yikes, didn’t see that one coming.  Sure it’s second place and the season is yet an embryo.  Sure it’s second place and the leader is waaayyyyy up there, 18.5 points ahead of me.  But we’re in the hunt.  Oh and the Marlins are 4-0.  Surely we’ll both continue through the year without the stench of reality bringing us down.  I know, stop calling me Shirley.

So who are the big tall dogs leading the charge?  Here are some notable Big Dog efforts for week 1:

Josh Beckett:  Beckett was just dominant against the Rays in his first start.  Seven innings, 2 hits, 1 ER.  Cruise control.  10 strikeouts and the win.  Another day at the office for a true front line stud.  The 3 walks are a bit of a nit, but it’s way early in the season and things will just get better. 

Gavin Floyd:  What?  Gavin Floyd?  Yep, he was pretty much lights out in his first start.  7IP, 2ER, 6 hits, no HRs.  Plus he struck out 9 over those 7 innings against just 2 walks.  And he had the Royals hitters pounding the ball into the ground.  8 gb outs vs 4 fly outs.   Floyd actually struck out 20 batters in 21 spring training innings so maybe he’s getting it?  Well it was the Royals, but they are a much better offensive team this year than you think.  Unfortunately for Gavin he was up against Zack Greinke and Greinke was even better.   Floyd gets the Tigers in Detroit next, so we’ll see if he’s real soon enough.

Dan Haren:  Haren was Haren in his opener.  7IP 1ER only 3 hits allowed.  Haren struck out 9 without giving up a single walk.  Fantasy stud.  His only mistake was a Tulowitzki blast; all that was needed for:

Ubaldo Jimenez:  7 shutout innings and 8Ks.  Jimenez pitched just well enough to beat Haren in a great early season pitcher’s duel.  His control was a little iffy; 3 walks in 7IP and on 60 of 107 pitches for strikes but there’s no arguing that he got the job done against a very tough offensive team.

Subject to Interpretation

Erik Bedard:  In spite of the fact that Bedard only went 5 innings and gave up 3 runs he was still in line for the win until Brandon Morrow went all in vitro by loading all previously barren bags with Twins.  Dr. Batista then obliged by sending all three runners home.  In spite of the outcome Bedard did strike out 8 without issuing a walk and that is a very promising line.

Koji Uehara:  Uehara held the mighty Yankee offense to a single run in 5 innings in his big league debut.  He looked sharp, giving up only 5 hits and a single walk.   But there are a couple of dark clouds here, mainly the complete lack of strikeouts…complete….like zero.  This coupled with extreme fly ball tendancies 3/12  GB/FB ratio would seem to indicated that there will be a paddling or two in Uehara’s future.

Burn Ward

Justin Verlander:  My boy Justin picked up were he left off last year, hemorrhaging extra base hits (4 2bs, 1 3b, 1HR) while in the process of getting his body hair singed off by the Blue Jays.  3.2IP, 8ER, 8H,2BBs, a line so ugly that my team ERA and WHIP will be bruised and nasty well into May.  Perhaps the Tigers can at least teach Verlander to stop, drop, and roll before his next start against Texas.   Safety first.

Brian Moehler:  Yikes.  1.2IP, 7ER, 8H.  Moehler looked like a softball pitcher afraid of kicking over his beer during the follow through.  Perhaps he was distracted by all of the projectiles that his opponent, NASA scientist Ted Lilly, had launched into orbit during the game.  Yep, in spite of giving up 4 bombs in 5IP, Lilly managed to last long enough to get the win.  Ah the sweetness of pitching while propped up by 10 runs of support.

Brandon Webb:  Brandon Webb here and Gavin Floyd with the big dogs.  Didn’t see that one coming.   I can’t say that Webb was outpitched by the equally putrid effort put forth by Aaron Cook, but what a surprise.  Webb is battling a sore shoulder and that combined with this being his  first outing of the season gets him a free pass on this one.  He’ll be just fine if the shoulder is something that calms down on it’s own.

Robbie Cano is out of the blocks and sizzling this year hitting at a .571 clip and check out Marco Scutaro, who may still be available even in AL only leagues.  He’s starting at SS and is off to a .409 start with 2 bombs.  Will he keep this up?…nah.  But he should be servicable this year and may make an excellent sell high candidate.

So we’re off and running in this 09 fantasy season.  I’d be remiss in not mentioning that I succumbed to my Brett Myers weakness.  As I’m on my way home from the draft I find the MLB season opener on the radio.  Brett is on the hill versus the power starved Atlanta Braves.  I tune in just as Brett serves up his third bomb of the game.  It’s the second inning by the way.   Did I mention that the Braves are power starved? 

There is a good possibility that Verlander and Myers will eventually reduce me to a babbling heap of beer stained khaki.  Not that I need their help or anything.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s keeper time and I’ve submitted my list for what may very well be my weakest team this season.   The Fighting Sea Monkeys are in a 12 team, AL only, 5X5 league with a very interesting rule that has hamstrung me, emphasis on the hamstring, with a $37 Vernon Wells.  In this league any player signed to an extended contract can only be released by eating half of that player’s remaining contract.   I liked this rule up until the time when it came up and bit me where the beer and pizza gathers.

Vernon Wells took the Monkeys on a .303/.357/.542  joyride in ‘06, complete with 32 HRs, 106 RBIs and 17 steals;  a performance that helped propel the Monkeys to a finish in the money in our first year in this league.  Flush with success it was time to lock up the franchise and I spent like….well….a drunken Monkey.  Yep, three more years of V. Wells ultimately cresting at the ‘09 bargain price of $37.

2007 saw Vernon Wells perform more like Dawn Wells and his .245/.304/.402 line sunk the Monkeys below the MaryAnna Trench.  Last year brought a performance rebound of sorts but also a new development; he became delicate.  He breaks a wrist, comes back and then pulls a hamstring.   Fall down a well, eyes go crossed.  Get kicked by a mule, eyes go back.  I dunno.

So now my guy comes into ‘09 healthy and is looking strong in spring training when….SPROING…..pop goes the hamstring.  Yep, the same one as last year.  He’s back and playing again now but the early signs point to a season that will require generous doses of brown liquor.

So now when you see my keeper list, you’ll know.  Here’s what I have going into the season:

Keepers 1

So I’ve got $140 to spend going into the draft which may be enough to help me plug the gaping holes in my team.  I need to land an ace starter, a banger at one of the corners and then I need to cobble together some speed.  Lackey, CC, Halladay, and Beckett are all in the draft pool, but with league inflation, they’re going to cost at least $30.  The corners are an even bigger problem with only Miguel Cabrera and Teixeira available as elite options at 1B and only ARod and his hip at 3B.  I’m guessing that I’ll have to go over $40 to get Tex, (and I will) and I really need to get one of the four remaining aces.

I’m feeling good about my closer situation as both guys looked good when they got their chances at the end of last year.  Devine will be pushed by Ziegler in Oakland, but he profiles much better for the job and he put up absolutely obscene numbers last year.  In 45+ innings in Oakland he recorded an ERA of 0.59 and a 0.83 WHIP.  Toss in a K/9 of 9.66 and a K/BB of 3.3 and you’ve got the guy that Ziegler will be setting up.  Francisco put up a respectable ERA of 3.13 with a 1.15 WHIP and he had an eye-popping K/9 of 11.8 and a K/BB of 3.2.

Granderson at $10 helps to absorb the Wells effect and if  Travis Snider can stay up all year and if Verlander can somehow become reaquainted with the plate, the Monkeys could be swinging from a level branch going into the draft.

On the downside, Duran was sent down and although he was just a placeholder, I now have clogged artery in my lineup for the draft.  And I’m not sure what my blood alchohol content was when I kept Gavin Floyd because I’m not sold on his success last year.   Don’t get me wrong, the 17 wins were sweet last year as was the surprise ERA under 4, but his peripherals weren’t all that impressive and many of the 30, yes 30 bombs that Floyd served up landed on the dark side of the moon.

I’ve got an NL only keeper list due tomorrow and that task will be a pleasure as I’ve got more low cost studs than the cast of Supernatural.  Sorry, that comparison is the wife’s idea, but it’s Saturday night and she’s into the Cosmos so I’m rolling with it.

I know that was lame but I’m a guy and I have a hard time expressing my feelings.  What I would really like to say is that it’s spring training and  I’m more excited than when Busty Models comes on Showtime right after my wife has fallen asleep.  But that would be wrong.  And then she’d just start setting the sleep timer.  Yes…Glove is in the air.

So it’s the best time of the year.  Keeper lists are coming due.  And the dicey art of  juggling draft dates for those of us that are in waaayyy too many leagues.  I only play in AL or NL only leagues.  Mixed league (yeah I know, they’re all mixed) just don’t do it for me because everybody has a loaded lineup, there are always good guys on the waiver wire that can make up for a bad pick and it usually comes down to who has guys break down and who gets lucky.  I like looking for the hidden gems out there.  The guys that are going to make the difference in a 12 team AL  (or NL) only leagues.  Most of these guys would never make a mixed team roster, but it is really sweet when you pick up a guy and he goes on a tear.

I don’t usually pay for catchers.  I’ve heard all of the position scarcity theories out there but I still won’t pay.  I know that there are studs there, but the Martins and McCanns and even the Sotos go for crazy money in my leagues and those are the guys that get blasted in home plate collsions and have most parts of their bodies pelted by foul tips.  I mean Chris Snyder was out with a testicular fracture last year.  That’s disturbing.  Just how does one rehab a fractured testicle?  Is there a cast involved?  I think I’ll put my money on nads that are at least 90 feet away from that type of  danger.  I’d rather get these guys during the end game.  Last year I got lucky with a $3 Chris Iannetta and with a not so lucky Chris Snyder also at $3. 

Iannetta was a minor league stud who played decently in his first taste of the bigs in ‘06 but then went down in flames in his first significant run with the Rockies in ‘07.  Catchers normally take quite some time to develop and this guy came into last year with more experience and in a no pressure backup role on a pennant winning team.  And he was still only 25.  For a $3 catcher you gotta love .264/.390/.505 for the year.  Throw in 18 bombs from the catcher spot and you just found a surprise $20 bill in an old coat you haven’t worn since last winter. 

Closers are also found in those high priced mall stores where I dare not tread.   I’m going to go with a Joey Devine/Frank Franciso tandem in one league this year.  Will Devine emerge in Oakland and will Francisco hang on in Texas?  I like their chances but I’ve only got $16 tied up between both of them.  If they spit the bit, I should have some spare offensive parts bought with my mall money to trade for whatever surprise closer emerges during the course of the season.   I mean who is going to be the guy in Seattle?  Will Fuentes hold onto the job in Anaheim (not with my money).  Sherril until Ray?  Who is going to close in Tampa? Detroit? Arizona?  Do you fell lucky…punk?

In preparing for the draft one of the things that I key on are my player blindspots.  These are guys that I know I should stay away from but just can’t.  They’re like that last tequila shot…even though the seven synapses still firing in my brain  tell me to stay away, my roto beer googles tell me what the hell.  It’ll be fun.  I’m submitting freeze lists this weekend and here are the guys that I don’t want to drunk dial onto my roster:

Brett Myers…….I’ve had him as a keeper for three years now.  His peripherals are attractive:  7.7K/9 and a 2.5 K/BB ratio.  He pitches for the World Champs with a stacked lineup, and he has Madson and Lidge.  But he still manages to go 10-13, earns a trip to the minors and gets taken to the woodshed for 29 swats,while putting up a 4.55 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.  He is good enough to keep me watching but he’ll probably go between $15-$20.  I can’t spend it, and I can’t not spend it. 

Gavin Floyd…….I’ve got him for $1.  Another big time pitching prospect that  made the big club and promptly got bombed back to the stone age.  I got him with my last dollar and then watched in contented disbelief as he cruised through the league with 17 wins and a 3.84 ERA.  Every start  had me holding my breath and waiting for the inevitable hideous meltdown.  It was like watching Sanjaya on American Idol, only I was actually rooting for Floyd.  But Floyd never faltered and he has the roto mags believing he can do it again.

I decided to keep him because he’ a buck, but to be honest I’m not going to be surprised to see him get bitch slapped back to the minors this year.  He’s homer prone, had an artificially low .261 BABIP last year and when those line shots aren’t right at a glove, the shine could come off of this apple.

Finally…Rickie Weeks….I’ve had Rickie Weeks on one of my teams since he came up to the big club.  Always on the verge of being a devastating speed/power middle infielder, but never quite getting there.  Weeks is the ultimate tease and while he’s no longer suicidally inept at second, I’m just not that into him anymore.  19 steals….wahooo….. .234 BA …not so pretty.  So this year I’m going to let Rickie go and I’m going to move on with my life.  Yes it will be hard to see Rickie out with another owner and there will be times when he really looks good and I’ll wonder what could have been.   But he’s not going to hurt me any more; I have too much self respect.  And I don’t need a stud 2B to be happy.

Anyway I’ve got to get back to MLB TV.   It’s like a free all you can eat buffet and I’m going to eat till I puke.  Hell I almost forgot about the NCAA Tournament Show.  What’s happening to me?????